I've been a serious Capitals fan since I returned to DC in the mid 90s and a season's ticket holder for 8 seasons, which means I have stuck with the team through the past few lean years. The team's revival this season since Coach Bruce Boudreau took the reins has been nothing short of spectacular, and the team's success also owes a lot to some excellent personnel moves by GM George McPhee. And, of course, Ted Leonisis heads an ownership group that has demonstrated an incredible commitment to the fans and to our great city.
Tuesday evening's "Red Out" at the Verizon Center was an incredible experience, like few if any games I have been at in the past decade. The crowd was fantastic, especially for a weekday night, and the Caps gave everyone what they came for. Our guys manhandled a good Hurricane team, and kept the pressure up on a talented young netminder in Cam Ward until they cracked the game wide open.
Unfortunately, the Caps still aren’t guaranteed a playoff spot even if they win their two final games. With two wins, they would end up at 94 points with a 42 win season – and 11 wins out of their last 12, which isn’t a bad little run. Clearly, it would be a damn shame if it takes 95 points to make the 8th spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs this year, however that's caused in large part by how the league has unwittingly given disproportionate weight in the standings to the modest fraction of games that go into overtime (but more about that another time). There's nothing to be done about that now, and Alex Ovechkin is still the clear choice for MVP regardless of how the final standings break.
Nevertheless, the Caps are tantalizingly close to a playoff spot, and I think they're going to make it, although more likely in 8th position rather than 3rd. There are two factors working in our favor. If Washington wins both of its remaining games, it will hold the tie-breakers over Ottawa, Boston, and Philly should any of those three teams end up tied in points with the Caps. Secondly, Boston and Ottawa play each other on Friday, and both need at least one point in that game to clinch a spot (assuming they each win their other remaining game). So if that game is settled in regulation, and the Caps do their thing, then the Caps will be in.
I've seen some confusion in some other blogs about who controls their own destiny in making the playoffs, so here’s my take on the Eastern Conference race and the Caps chances over these last four days of the regular season:
#1 Penguins and #2 Canadians have both clinched their respective divisions and the first two playoff spots; all that's left for them is to jockey for the conference championship. With a 2 point lead over the Habs and only 1 game left to play, the Pens obviously hold the inside position, but with their final meeting on the road against what will be a desperate Flyers team, this is by no means a done deal.
#3 Hurricanes have one final game against the Panthers on Friday. If Carolina wins, they finish with 94 points and are SE Division champions because they will have more wins (43) than Washington. On the other hand, if they lose, even an OTL, they are at serious risk of missing the playoffs altogether, depending on what happens among the other teams. So they’ll be motivated. At this juncture, Florida doesn't have much to play for, and I'm afraid the Caps will lose the division on the tie-breaker.
#4 Devils are pretty much set. The Rangers could pass them if they will all 3 of their remaining games and the Devils lose both of theirs, and I don't see that happening.
#5 Rangers are at 93 points and need only 2 points in their final 3 games to guarantee their playoff spot. It’s gonna happen. Furthermore, if they earn 4 points, they lock in the #5 seed and the opportunity to play their favorite whipping boys, the Devils (7-0 so far this season), in the first round.
#6 Senators are at 92 points and need 3 points in their final 2 games to clinch a spot. That will be tough for them. They’re at Toronto tonight, and the Leafs have beaten them in each of their last 4 meetings, including 2 shutouts (after the Sens won the first 3). Although they have been eliminated from the playoffs, what could be sweeter for Toronto than to beat their provincial rivals and deny them a playoff spot? And then Ottawa has their Boston game Friday night. This may prove to be the biggest melt-down in NHL history following ther record 13-1 start to this season.
#7 Bruins are also at 92 points and also need 3 points in their final 2 games to clinch a spot. They are at Ottawa on Friday and face Buffalo on Saturday; losing either game in regulation would put their playoff hopes in jeopardy. But having somehow managed to earn 12 points in the last 9 games despite 5 losses during that stretch, they can’t be counted out, even if they have actually won only 5 of their most recent 16. Unless Buffalo is still in the running on Sunday, Boston is likely to get an easy win in their finale; so their chances hinge more on their Ottawa game.
#8 Flyers are at 91 points and must win both remaining games against the Devils and the Pens. New Jersey will not have quite as much to play for since they virtually have a lock on their 4th seed position. However, the same won’t be true at Pittsburgh if Montreal gains 3 points in their final 2 games (Buffalo and Toronto). In that case, the Pens will be playing that final Sunday game for the Eastern Conference championship and #1 seed. Not likely to be an easy one for Philly.
#10 Buffalo is virtually out of it, even if they were to beat both Montreal and Boston their final two games, they would only end up with 92 points. The Sabres only hope is that the Bruins lose both remaining games in regulation, and the Flyers earn no more than one point over their final two (in that case, they would hold tie breakers over both teams). They can’t pass the Hurricanes and if the Caps win one game, they can’t pass us.
However the season ends up, its been an exciting ride, and I'm looking forward to being at our final two wins against Tampa and Florida. And with a little luck, the Caps will keep on playing right through the next couple of months.
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